Giá dầu phục hồi trên mức 100 USD/thùng

Sau chuá»—i ngày giảm giá miệt mài, cuối cùng giá dầu thô cÅ©ng Ä‘ã tăng trở lại kể từ phiên Mỹ tối qua và kéo dài sang phiên châu Á sáng nay bởi vấn đề chiến sá»± ở khu vá»±c Libya ngày càng ác liệt hÆ¡n, gây gián Ä‘oạn nguồn cung.

NhÆ° vậy, giá dầu thô WTI Ä‘ã quay trở lại và Ä‘óng cá»­a trên mốc 100 USD/thùng kể từ phiên Mỹ tối qua, và đến 8h20 sáng nay (giờ Việt Nam), giá dầu Ä‘ã nhích qua khỏi 103 USD/thùng.

Việc Há»™i đồng Bảo an Liên hợp quốc Ä‘ã thông qua nghị quyết thành lập vùng cấm bay tại Libya để ngăn quân Ä‘á»™i ủng há»™ ông Gadhafi tấn công thành phố Benghazi, nÆ¡i phòng thủ cuối cùng của phe đối lập, đồng thời sẽ có những biện pháp cần thiết để bảo vệ người dân trong cuá»™c giao tranh giữa lá»±c lượng trung thành của tổng thống và phe chống đối.

Tuy nhiên Ä‘iều Ä‘ó càng đổ thêm dầu vào lá»­a, chiến sá»± có thể xảy ra ác liệt hÆ¡n vì nghiá»…m nhiên Ä‘ã trở thành cuá»™c chiến ba bên. Theo ông Ben Westmore, nhà kinh tế năng lượng và khoáng sản của Ngân hàng National Australia Bank Ltd ở Melbourne nói, việc can thiệp Liên hợp quốc về quân sá»± chống lại Qaddafi Ä‘ó không phải là má»™t giải pháp hòa bình tốt, vì vậy triển vọng nguồn cung thắt chặt tiếp tục tạo thêm sức ép cho giá dầu.

Đóng cá»­a phiên giao dịch hôm qua, giá dầu thô Brent giao kỳ hạn tháng 04 Ä‘óng cá»­a tăng 4,30 USD (3,9%) lên mức 114,90 USD/thùng.

Tình hình tại Bahrain cÅ©ng rất căng thẳng bởi bạo Ä‘á»™ng nhằm kêu gọi chấm dứt nền quân chủ ở nÆ°á»›c này. Lá»±c lượng quân Ä‘á»™i của các quốc gia láng giềng Ä‘ã được mời đến để Ä‘àn áp những người chống đối, phần lá»›n thuá»™c dòng Shiites.

Ngân hàng Credit Suisse Group AG Ä‘ã nâng dá»± báo về triển vọng giá dầu thô Brent sẽ có giá bình quân 105,80 USD/thùng thay vì 85 USD/thùng nhÆ° dá»± báo trÆ°á»›c Ä‘ó. Việc nâng dá»± báo dá»±a trên cÆ¡ sở bất ổn ở Trung Đông sẽ gây ảnh hưởng đến nguồn cung dầu.

Oil Surges on Libya Action; Credit Suisse Raises Brent Forecast

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By Ben Sharples

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Oil surged in New York after the United Nations Security Council voted to ground Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s air force as continuing unrest in the region renewed concerns that the turmoil may spread and disrupt supply.

Futures jumped as much as 2.2 percent after the UN voted to adopt a resolution that establishes a no-fly zone over Libya and demands a cease-fire with rebels. Oil surged 3.5 percent yesterday, the most in three weeks, after Qaddafi’s jets dropped bombs around Benghazi while Bahraini security forces arrested opposition leaders. Credit Suisse Group AG raised its forecast for Brent crude traded in London, citing Middle East unrest.

 “It may result in the UN having to take military action against Qaddafi and the prospect of that is not good for a peaceful resolution,” Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne, said by telephone today. “The prospect of supply tightening is keeping a floor under oil prices.”

Crude for April delivery gained as much as $2.24 to $103.66 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $103.08 at 10:57 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, it jumped $3.44 to $101.42, the highest close since March 10. Prices are up 1.8 percent for the week and 25 percent higher than a year ago.

Brent crude oil for May settlement advanced $4.30, or 3.9 percent, to end yesterday’s session at $114.90 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Brent Forecast

Credit Suisse Group AG today upgraded its forecasts for Brent, citing unrest in the Middle East and concerns about capacity shortfalls. The bank increased its projection to $105.80 a barrel from $85, analysts led by Sydney-based Sandra McCullagh said in a report. It raised its 2012 estimate by 18 percent to $100.50 a barrel from $85. UBS AG this week advanced its 2011 forecast by 22 percent to $103.75 a barrel from $85.

Oil climbed yesterday on concern violence in Bahrain will spill into Saudi Arabia. Forces from neighboring countries were invited by Bahrain to help quell a month of protests driven by majority Shiites. Regional unrest has cut Libya’s crude production and toppled the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt.

The restoration of Qaddafi’s control won’t necessarily lead to the quick resumption of Libyan oil output, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. led by Lawrence Eagles in New York said in a note to clients yesterday. It will be difficult to persuade foreign workers to return and there may be the obstacle of UN sanctions and a boycott of Libyan oil, the analysts said.

Japan Quake

Futures slipped as much as 1.4 percent yesterday amid concern damage from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami will curb demand for crude. Group of Seven officials will meet today to discuss the threat from the 9-magnitude earthquake, raising the prospect of coordinated action to prevent the disaster from crippling the world’s third-largest economy.

Analysts at Nomura International Ltd. said Japan’s oil demand may jump by 3.9 percent, or 171,000 barrels a day, as the country seeks alternative power sources. Nomura said it based its estimates on the effect of quakes in 1995 and 2007. Japan will make up for the bulk of the nuclear power losses by boosting output in oil-fired and natural gas-fueled power plants, the bank said in an e-mailed report.

A Tokyo Electric Power Co. official said the company may connect a power cable to the Fukushima nuclear plant as workers try to restart the cooling system and prevent a meltdown. A March 11 earthquake, Japan’s strongest on record, triggered a tsunami that killed thousands and damaged reactors.