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Analysis of US EIA data: U.S. crude oil stocks climb 6.2 million barrels on run cuts, import rise

U.S. crude oil stocks surged 6.2 million barrels the week ended March 7 on a cut in U.S. refinery utilization rates and an increase in oil imports, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

U.S. crude oil stocks the week ended March 7 were at 370 million barrels -- a 4.14% surplus to the EIA five-year average -- up from a 2.88% surplus a week earlier but down from a 13.31% surplus on November 22.

The increase in inventories was nearly triple the figure that analysts were expecting.

U.S. refinery utilization rates fell 1.4 percentage points to 86% of capacity, partly due to planned maintenance.

Refinery rates in the U.S. Midwest fell 7.8 percentage points and were partly offset by a 1.7 percentage-point increase on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC), 1.6 percentage-point rise in the Rocky Mountain region and a 1.4 percentage-point boost on the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC). Analysts on average expected U.S. refinery utilization to fall by 0.5 percentage point.

An unspecified unit breakdown at ExxonMobil's 149,500 barrels per day (b/d) Torrance, California, refinery led to flaring the week ended March 7. However, the refinery was already on a planned maintenance outage. That maintenance is expected to last several weeks.

Phillips 66's 238,000 barrels per day (b/d) Bayway, New Jersey, refinery underwent planned maintenance the week ended March 7, as did the company's 306,000 b/d Wood River, Illinois, refinery. The latter is a joint venture with Cenovus.

Shell's 145,000 b/d Puget Sound refinery in Anacortes, Washington, was also undergoing planned maintenance, including work on a fluid catalytic cracking unit, a carbon monoxide boiler and alkylation unit.

Tesoro's 166,000 b/d Golden Eagle refinery in Martinez, California, restarted an alkylation unit the week ended March 7.

As U.S. refiners decreased their rates, imports to the U.S. rose 199,000 b/d to 7.31 million b/d, mainly due to a 383,000 b/d increased in imports from Iraq to 599,000 b/d the week ended March 7.

Imports from Colombia were up 250,000 b/d to 391,000 b/d, while imports from Kuwait fell 267,000 b/d to 179,000 b/d.

Most of the import increase was centered along the U.S. West Coast and USGC, where imports rose 260,000 b/d and 234,000 b/d, respectively.

Stocks at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) delivery hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell for the sixth consecutive week, sliding 1.3 million barrels to 30.8 million barrels the week ended March 7.

EIA data shows Cushing stocks have fallen more than 9.4 million barrels since the end of January and are at a near 20% deficit to the five-year average.

Analysts had said that a drop in stocks at Cushing for the week ended March 7 could provide some fundamental support for NYMEX April crude oil futures. However, any upside has been limited after U.S. total crude oil stocks rose for the eighth straight week, suggesting that the wider U.S. market is well supplied.

NYMEX April crude oil futures were $2.42 lower on the day at $97.61 per barrel at 12:02 p.m. EDT (1602 GMT) Wednesday. U.S. gasoline stocks dipped 5.2 million barrels to 223.8 million barrels the week ended March 7, according to EIA data, outpacing analysts' expectations of a 1.8 million-barrel draw.

Stocks on the USAC -- home of the New York delivery point for NYMEX RBOB -- fell 1.1 million barrels to 58.4 million barrels and dipped 2.11% below the EIA five-year average.

Implied demand* for the fuel rose 538,000 b/d to 8.95 million b/d, putting it 322,000 b/d above year-ago levels, while gasoline imports were up 65,000 b/d to 395,000 b/d.

Blending-component stocks fell 4.1 million barrels the week ended March 7 to 185.9 million barrels, EIA data showed, but were about 16 million barrels above year-ago levels.

U.S. distillate stocks fell 500,000 barrels to 113.9 million barrels, compared with a 900,000-barrel draw estimated by analysts.

Implied demand for distillates rose 151,000 b/d to 3.7 million b/d and was 349,000 b/d above demand levels for the same week in 2013.

USAC combined low and ultra-low sulfur diesel stocks of 20.72 million barrels the week ended March 7 were about 19.7% below the EIA five-year average. The deficit was above 34% just four weeks earlier, though. Stocks rose 96,000 barrels week over week.

* Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.

By Platts