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Analysis of US EIA data: U.S. crude oil stocks up 1.4 million barrels last week

U.S. crude oil stocks rose 1.4 million barrels the week ended February 28 as refiners cut run rates and imports pushed higher, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed Wednesday.

Analysts polled by Platts were anticipating a 1.5 million-barrel build in total crude oil stocks and a 0.5 percentage-point drop in refinery run rates.

The build to 363.8 million barrels during the week ended February 28 puts U.S. crude oil stocks at a 2.88% surplus to the EIA five-year average.

While total U.S. stocks rose the week ended February 28, inventories fell for the fifth week in a row at Cushing, Oklahoma -- the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) delivery hub – dropping 2.7 million barrels to 32.1 million barrels.

The draw puts Cushing stocks at a 16% deficit to the EIA five-year average. During the same week in 2013, Cushing stocks totaled 50.5 million barrels.

While Cushing stocks dropped, crude oil inventories increased for the seventh straight week on the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC), where stocks rose 4.3 million barrels to 182 million barrels the week ended February 28.

"We believe that the previously ample stocks at Cushing are predominately being moved to, rather than being consumed on, the Gulf Coast, with consequently limited impact on overall crude stocks," Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas, said in a note. "More importantly to the overall crude stock build, the U.S. system remains awash with crude due primarily to the marked increases in crude production."

U.S. Midwest crude oil stocks fell 2.7 million barrels to 98.2 million barrels the week ended February 28.

U.S. crude oil production in the lower 48 states the week ended February 28 was steady at 7.56 million barrels per day (b/d), up more than 990,000 b/d from a year earlier.

U.S. refiners lowered run rates by 0.6 percentage point to 87.4% of capacity, EIA data showed, with the majority of the decline centered on the USGC. Refiners there cut utilization rates by 3.3 percentage points to 85% of capacity.

Planned maintenance was underway at Phillips 66's 238,000 b/d Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey, a company spokesman said the week ended February 28, while maintenance also began at Phillips 66's 306,000 b/d Wood River refinery in Roxana, Illinois, Platts data showed.

Also, BP has been buying gasoline around the U.S. Midwest in preparation for planned maintenance on the fluid catalytic cracker at its 413,000 b/d Whiting, Indiana, refinery, traders said the week ended February 28.

U.S. crude oil imports rose 75,000 b/d to 7.11 million b/d the week ended February 28. A 517,000 b/d decline in Saudi Arabian imports to 1.27 million b/d was offset by both a 401,000 b/d increase in Mexican imports to 1.06 million b/d and incremental increases from other countries such as Venezuela and Angola.

Imports to the USGC were up 93,000 b/d to 3.53 million b/d, despite fog-related issues that suspended vessel boardings in the Houston Ship Channel from February 23-25.

The week ended February 28 saw U.S. gasoline stocks fall 1.6 million barrels to 229 million barrels, which is near analysts’ expectations of a 1.5 million-barrel draw.

Implied demand* for the fuel fell 123,000 b/d to 8.41 million b/d, though it was 48,000 b/d above year-ago levels.

Gasoline-stock declines driven by seasonal refinery maintenance are expected at this time of year, Tchilinguirian noted.

Blending component stocks fell 2 million barrels the week ended February 28, even as imports of those components rose 57,000 b/d to 323,000 b/d.

The U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) -- home of the New York delivery point for NYMEX RBOB -- experienced the bulk of the decline in gasoline stocks, which fell 1.7 million barrels to 59.5 million barrels. The draw puts USAC gasoline stocks at a slight 1% deficit to the EIA five-year average.

U.S. distillate stocks rose 1.4 million barrels to 114.5 million barrels, counter to analysts’ expectations of a 1.5 million-barrel decline.

Still, stocks are 19.8% below the EIA five-year average of 142.7 million barrels -- a steep deficit.

Implied demand for distillate fuel fell 71,000 b/d to 3.55 million b/d the week ended February 28.

Tchilinguirian said potentially lower-than-expected, weather-impacted deliveries and rumored imports of distillate fuel to the U.S. East Coast could have led to the stocks boost.

USAC combined low and ultra-low sulfur diesel stocks at 20.62 million barrels the week ended February 28 were about 20.4% below the EIA five-year average. This is narrowed from a deficit of more than 34% just two weeks earlier. Stocks rose 1.9 million barrels from the previous week.

Stocks were 21.404 million barrels around the same week in 2013.

* Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.

Source: platts